| 梁婕,曾光明,郭生练,韦安磊.渗透系数的非均质性对地下水溶质运移的影响[J].水利学报,2008,39(8): |
| 渗透系数的非均质性对地下水溶质运移的影响 |
| Effect of hydraulic conductivity heterogeneity on solute transport in groundwater |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 地下水 地统计学 不确定性 非均质性 渗透系数 |
| 英文关键词: groundwater geostatistics uncertainty heterogeneity solute transport hydraulic conductivity |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本文应用贝叶斯推断方法和随机模拟技术，定量研究了渗透系数的非均质性对地下水溶质运移的影响，并进行了二维理想流的分析计算。计算时分别考虑了随机模拟引起的不确定性和随机模型中参数的不确定性的影响。计算结果表明，贝叶斯推断的参数后验分布是不对称的；当条件数据较多时，参数后验分布的标准方差较小，参数分布的集中趋势较明显；地下水溶质运移的不确定程度随着时间的推移而增加，随着条件数据数量的增多而减少；当考虑参数不确定性时，溶质运移的不确定程度明显增加。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The Bayesian inference method and stochastic simulation technique are applied to quantitatively study the impact of hydraulic conductivity heterogeneity on solute transport in groundwater and a 2 D analysis of ideal flow is carried out. In the analysis the uncertainty due to stochastic simulation and the influence of the uncertainty of the parameters in the model are taken into account. The results show that the posterior distributions of parameters are dissymmetrical. When more conditional data are incorporated in the analysis, the standard deviation of parameters will be smaller and the centralized trend is more obvious. The uncertainty of solute transport increases with the increase of time elapsed and decreases with the increase of the number of conditional data. When the uncertainty of parameters is taken into account, the uncertainty of solute transport obviously increases. |
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