| 陈璐,卢韦伟,周建中,郭生练,张俊宏.水文预报不确定性对水库防洪调度的影响分析[J].水利学报,2016,47(1):77-84 |
| 水文预报不确定性对水库防洪调度的影响分析 |
| Effect of streamflow forecast uncertainty on reservoir operation |
| 投稿时间：2015-08-05 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20150844 |
| 中文关键词: 水文预报不确定性演化 防洪调度 风险分析 |
| 英文关键词: streamflow forecast uncertainty evolution reservoir operation risk analysis |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51309104,51579107);武汉市科技支撑项目(2014060101010064) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 定量分析预报的不确定性,已成为防洪预报调度风险分析中的关键问题。本文基于 Copula 函数,提出了可以描述水文预报不确定性随时间演化特性的 CUE(Copula-based Uncertainty Evolution Model)模型,并通过该模型模拟了水文预报不确定性序列;基于 Monte-Carlo 方法和模拟序列,计算了预报不确定性对水库防洪预报调度的影响。结果表明,CUE 模型能够很好地模拟水文预报不确定性,采用预报预泄法,对三峡水库进行防洪调度,不会增加防洪风险率。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| It is of importance to analyze the influence of streamflow forecast uncertainty on reservoir operation. This paper proposed a copula-based uncertainty evolution model to characterize the uncertainty evolution process. Based on this model,the forecast uncertainty series was simulated. Then,the effect of streamflow forecast uncertainty on reservoir operation was analyzed using the Monte-Carlo method. Results demonstrate that the proposed CUE model performs very well. When the pre-released operation method used, the flood risk cannot increase. |
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