| 石振明,熊永峰,彭铭,熊曦,朱艳.堰塞湖溃坝快速定量风险评估方法——以2014年鲁甸地震形成的红石岩堰塞湖为例[J].水利学报,2016,47(6):742-751 |
| 堰塞湖溃坝快速定量风险评估方法——以2014年鲁甸地震形成的红石岩堰塞湖为例 |
| An efficient risk assessment method for landslide dam breach: Taking the Hongshiyan Landslide Dam formed by the 2014 Ludian Earthquake as an example |
| 投稿时间：2015-08-19 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20150884 |
| 中文关键词: 鲁甸地震 红石岩堰塞湖 溃坝 峰值流量 洪水演进 风险评估 |
| 英文关键词: Ludian earthquake Hongshiyan landslide lake dam breach peak outflow rate flood routing risk assessment |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41372272,41402257);上海市科研计划项目(14PJ1408200) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 2014年8月3日云南昭通市鲁甸县发生6.5级地震,形成高83 m,库容2.6亿m3的红石岩大型堰塞湖,严重威胁上下游生命财产安全。由于震后地质条件恶劣,道路堵塞,环境危险,且堰塞坝寿命极短,现有方法很难在有限时间内对堰塞坝进行快速且定量风险评估。本文提出一套基于最基本的堰塞坝几何参数、河道三维地形信息和人口分布数据的快速定量风险评估方法,可以实现任何堰塞坝突发区域内的溃坝、洪水演进和生命损失分析:首先采用地理信息工具快速获取坝址、上下游河道三维地形信息;然后采用统计模型和HEC-RAS软件模拟溃坝和洪水演进过程;最后采用风险分析模型计算得到下游生命损失。本文将该方法应用于红石岩堰塞湖案例分析发现:开挖泄流槽可以降低峰值流量和生命损失,但不能防止溃坝;开挖泄洪支洞后,可以避免在非汛期情况下发生溃决;但在极端洪水情况下(如百年一遇)仍会发生溃坝,并产生较大的洪水和生命损失,因此仍需要加固坝体,做好观测,并准备好应急预警和疏散预案。本方法可针对突发堰塞湖进行快速定量的风险评估,为堰塞湖的应急管理和决策提供依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| A landslide dam was triggered by the Ms 6.5 Ludian earthquake on 3 August 2014 in Yunnan Province, China. The Hongshiyan landslide dam, with a height of 83 m and a lake capacity of 260×106 m3, threatened the people both upstream and downstream. The existing methods are very difficult to carry out effective and quantitative risk assessment to landslide dams before dam failure, because of the dangerous geologic environment, road blockage, and short longevity of landslide dams after the earthquake. This paper presents an efficient risk assessment method for landslide dam breach with limited geometric information of landslide dam and lake and resident population:firstly, three-dimensional digital models for the lake, dam and river are built with geographic information tools; secondly, a statistical dam breach model and a hydraulic software, HEC-RAS, are applied to simulate the dam breaching and flood routing process; finally, human risks are assessed using a human risk assessment model, HURAM. It is found from risk assessment of the Hongshiyan landslide dam with the presented method that the breaching flood and human risk will be obviously reduced by constructing the spillway, but dam breaching could not be avoided. The dam safety and corresponding human risk can be temporarily controlled by excavating the drainage branch tunnel, however, the dam would be breached and cause high human risks under some extreme flood conditions (e.g., a 100-year flood). Therefore, reinforcement measures, monitoring and contingent plans are needed. The present method can be used for efficient and quantitative risk assessment of sudden unexpected landslide dams,providing the basis for the emergency management and decision. |
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