| 纪昌明,刘源,王弋,张验科,陈平,王丽萍.耦合整体预报不确定性的水电站短期优化调度模型[J].水利学报,2021,52(8):907-916 |
| 耦合整体预报不确定性的水电站短期优化调度模型 |
| Short-term optimal operation model of hydropower station coupling the integrality of forecast uncertainty |
| 投稿时间：2020-12-14 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20201036 |
| 中文关键词: 水电站 发电调度 预报不确定性 发电风险 贴近度 |
| 英文关键词: hydropower station hydropower generation operation forecast uncertainty operation risk closeness |
| 基金项目:国家青年千人计划项目（Y771071001）；国家自然科学基金项目（51709105） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 以确定性预报径流为输入的水电站短期优化，受到预报不确定性的影响，会导致制定的运行方案与实际执行结果产生偏离，造成弃水或出力不足风险。为此，从水电站短期发电计划的编制过程出发，为编制优化运行方案，分析预报径流序列不同时段之间预报不确定性的关联，从而将短期径流预报序列各时段的预报不确定性耦合为一个整体，创新性地建立耦合整体预报不确定性的水电站短期优化调度模型。同时基于所提出的新优化模型，以锦西水电站为例进行实例研究，分别从实际总发电量和贴近度两个方面分析与评价新模型在效益和风险两个方面的优势，并将所建新模型与传统的确定性优化模型进行比较。结果表明，相较于传统确定性优化模型，本文所建立的新模型能够有效增加实际发电量、提高发电计划可靠性，可为水电站短期发电运行的实践提供有效参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The deterministic forecasted streamflow which is input of short-term optimal operation model of hydropower station is highly affected by forecast uncertainty, which may lead to the deviation between the planed operation schemes and actual operation results, causing the water abandon or insufficient output. Hence,based on the process of generate operation schemes,this study analyzed the correlation among forecast uncertainty in different lead times and constructed the short-term hydropower station optimal operation model coupling the integrality of forecast uncertainty. Taking the Jinxi hydropower station as a case study, the article analyzed the benefit and risk of the proposed model based on the actual total power generation and closeness and compared difference between the proposed model and traditional deterministic optimal model. The results show that the proposed model can effectively increase the actual power generation and the reliability of schemes. Therefore,the proposed model is useful for the short-term hydropower station optimal operation. |
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