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| 水风光互补系统梯级水电汛前蓄能控制风险分析方法 |
| Risk Analysis Method for Pre-Flood Energy Storage Control of Cascaded Hydropower in Hydro-Wind-Photovoltaic Hybrid Systems |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-09 修订日期：2025-07-04 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 水风光互补 风险分析 水库关键水位 汛前消落水位 长期优化调度 |
| 英文关键词: hydro-wind-photovoltaic systems risk analysis key reservoir water level pre-flood energy storage long-term optimal dispatching |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 流域梯级汛前蓄能控制直接影响水电对新能源电力、电量的补偿支撑作用，控制不当可能导致水风光互补系统面临较高的缺电、弃电和弃水风险。本文提出梯级水电汛前蓄能控制风险分析方法，建立了枯水期消落模型和蓄水调整期调度规则，以确定汛前蓄能控制的模拟运行准则；构建了枯期缺电、汛期弃水、年末蓄能不足、风光弃电指标集，以量化多阶段、多源运行风险；耦合蒙特卡洛和模糊隶属度以表征多维不确定性场景及其概率，并采用模拟分析给出了汛前蓄能与水风光互补效益、风险概率和风险损失的定量关系。实际工程验证分析表明：丰水年汛前蓄能大于26.5亿kWh有较大的弃水风险；平水年应控制在44亿kWh以下以避免突出的弃水和枯期缺电损失；枯水年汛前蓄能不宜过高或过低，最高和最低控制方案下，分别面临高达100%枯期缺电和30.6%年末蓄能不足的风险。该风险分析方法有效量化了汛前蓄能的多维风险，可为调度人员提供有价值的决策信息。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The pre-flood energy storage control of cascaded reservoirs directly affects hydropower’s ability to support new energy sources, potentially causing power shortages and water curtailment in hydro-wind-photovoltaic complementary systems. This paper presents a risk analysis method for pre-flood energy storage control. A dry period drawdown model and flood storage scheduling rules are developed to simulate storage scenarios. Indicators for power shortages, water curtailment, insufficient year-end storage, and new energy curtailment quantify risks in multi-source, multi-stage operations. The method combines Monte Carlo simulations with fuzzy affiliation to model uncertainty and probabilities, establishing a link between pre-flood storage and associated risks. Validation in the Lancang River Basin shows that in wet years, pre-flood storage over 2.65 billion kWh increases water curtailment risk; in normal years, it should be controlled below 4.4 billion kWh to avoid curtailment and shortages. In dry years, the highest and lowest extreme storage levels lead to 100% power shortage risk and 30.6% year-end storage insufficiency, respectively. This risk analysis method effectively quantifies multi-dimensional risks, offering key decision-making support. |
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