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| 面向生态的梯级水库多目标协调决策机制研究 |
| Multi-objective coordination decision-making mechanism of cascade reservoirs oriented to ecological requirements |
| 投稿时间：2025-02-11 修订日期：2025-09-08 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 梯级水库 生态调度 主从递阶 多目标优化 金沙江下游 |
| 英文关键词: cascade reservoir ecological operation leader-follower game multi-objective optimization lower Jinsha River |
| 基金项目:中国长江三峡集团公司项目(202303298)；湖北省自然科学基金项目(2024AFB527) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 针对梯级水库生态调度中多目标统筹与多管理主体会商耦合决策特征，以金沙江下游溪洛渡—向家坝梯级水库生态调度为研究实例，量化下游保护区干流江段适宜生态流量，解析生态优先、兴利兼顾原则下的协调决策机制，构建生态-发电多目标协调决策模型，对比分析主从递阶均衡解与多目标非劣解的调度策略与效益。结果表明：主从递阶决策模式在体现会商特征的同时优先保障生态效益，长江上游保护区干流江段适宜生态流量满足率达77.95%，梯级水库年均发电量为923.65亿kW·h，较现行调度策略适宜生态流量满足率提升25.95%，发电量增加15.71亿kW·h；在会商决策结构基础上进一步合作协调，综合调度效益存在平均5.22%的优化潜力，且随来水偏丰或偏枯呈扩大趋势。研究成果可为梯级水库生态调度提供多目标权衡、多主体协调的决策方法。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In response to the coupled decision-making characteristics of multi-objective coordination and multi-stakeholders negotiation in the ecological operation of cascade reservoirs, a case study was conducted on the ecological operation of the Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River. The appropriate ecological flow (e-flow) in the main stream section of the downstream protected were quantified. The decision-making mechanism under the principles of ecological priority and water utilization reconciliation were analyzed to conduct a multi-objective coordinated decision-making model for ecology and power generation. The operation strategies and benefits between the leader-follower hierarchical equilibrium solution and the multi-objective non-dominated solution were compared. The results show that the leader-follower hierarchical decision-making mode reflect the negotiation structure and ecological priority. The appropriate e-flow assurance rate in the main stream section of the Protected Area is 77.95%, and the average annual power generation of the cascade reservoirs is 923.65 billion kWh. Compared with the current operation rule, the appropriate e-flow assurance rate has increased by 25.95%, with power generation has increased by 15.71 billion kWh. Based on the negotiation decision-making structure, an average improvement space of 5.22% in the comprehensive operation benefits still exist with further cooperation and coordination, and this improvement space expands with the variation of water abundance or drought. This research can provide a decision-making framework for multi-objective trade-off and multi-stakeholders coordination in the ecological operation of cascade reservoirs. |
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