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| 流域水资源紧平衡识别与研判 |
| Identification and Analysis of Tight Water Balance in River Basins |
| 投稿时间：2025-03-31 修订日期：2025-08-25 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 水资源紧平衡 水资源收支 河道外经济社会用水 河道内生态用水 供需水平衡 黄河流域 |
| 英文关键词: tight water balance water budget off-stream socio-economic water use in-stream ecological water use supply-demand water balance Yellow River Basin |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200203) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为应对变化环境下缺水流域水资源供需失衡风险，从水资源收支平衡、河道内生态与河道外经济社会用水配置平衡、经济社会系统内部供需水平衡3个层级出发，系统解析了流域水资源紧平衡的概念内涵，建立了流域水资源紧平衡识别方法、指标体系及其阈值标准。以黄河流域为典型案例开展分析，结果表明：1988—2022年间，66%的年份黄河流域水系统收支处于紧平衡状态，34%的年份发生失衡，2002年后失衡风险明显上升；54%的年份河道内生态水量存在亏缺，利津断面生态流量保证率为83%，水量统一调度实施后生态流量保障能力显著提升，但枯水段生态水量不足问题依然突出；与2006年相比，2022年经济社会系统内部供需水平衡态势恶化，多个省区面临失衡风险。黄河流域水资源紧平衡具有水资源总量衰减、自然侧支出不足、社会侧竞争加剧的复合特征，实施跨流域调水是破解该困境的根本途径。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To address the risk of water supply-demand imbalance in water-scarce river basins under changing environments, this study deciphers the conceptual connotation of tight water balance at three hierarchical levels: water budget balance, in-stream ecological water use and off-stream socio-economic water use allocation balance, and socio-economic supply-demand water balance. A case study of the Yellow River Basin reveals that 66% of the years between 1988 and 2022 experienced tight water system budget balance, with 34% in imbalance and increased risk after 2002. In 54% of the years, there is a deficit in the ecological flow within the river channel, and the ecological flow assurance rate at the Lijin section was 83%. Significant improvements were observed in the ecological flow assurance capacity after the implementation of unified dispatching, but the issue of ecological water appropriation remains severe in dry periods. Compared to 2006, the supply-demand water balance trend in the socio-economic system deteriorated in 2022, with multiple provinces facing imbalance risks. The tight water balance in the Yellow River Basin exhibits composite characteristics of decreasing total water resources, insufficient natural water availability, and intensifying competition among socio-economic sectors. Implementing inter-basin water transfer represents a fundamental pathway to addressing this challenge. |
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