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| 流域“河-库系统”水文模拟与预报(Ⅱ)-科学问题与研究展望 |
| Basin Hydrological Modelling and Forecasting of “River-Reservoir System” II - Key Challenges, Scientific Issues, and Research Perspectives |
| 投稿时间：2025-05-20 修订日期：2025-10-11 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: “河-库系统” 产汇流模型 河道洪水演进 智能洪水预报 |
| 英文关键词: river-reservoir system yield-confluence modelling river flood routing intelligent flood forecasting |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFC3200301)；国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2340213) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 由于“河-库系统”改变了流域下垫面条件,流域产汇流规律与洪水演进特征发生显著变化,传统水文模型方法的适用性面临较严峻挑战。本文阐述了变化环境下流域产汇流模型、河道洪水演进和智能洪水预报等研究进展,从空间分异性、参数时变性、产流非线性、演算间断性等方面深入剖析流域“河-库系统”水文模拟与预报的重点、难点,梳理归纳需解决的关键科学技术问题,对未来的研究框架和内容进行了展望,以期对水库(群)精细化水文模拟预报研究提供科学研究与应用的探索与思考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The “River-Reservoir System” has changed the conditions of the basin"s subsurface. The water-vapor circulation regulation, yield and confluence characteristics, and flood routing process in the watershed have changed significantly, and the applicability of traditional hydrological modelling methods is facing serious challenges. In this paper, the research progress on the mechanism and modelling of catchment yield and confluence, river flood routing, and intelligent flood forecasting under the changing environment is systematically described. From the aspects of spatial anisotropy, time-variable parameters, nonlinearity of yield flow, and blocking of flood routing, we analyze the key points of hydrological simulation and forecasting in the “River-Reservoir System” and summarize the key scientific and technological problems to be solved. Finally, the framework and content of future research are prospected, with a wish to provide the reference for the research and development of refined hydrological simulation and forecasting in reservoirs (groups). |
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