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| 黄河下游河道主槽容积的演变过程及模拟 |
| Evolution Process and Simulation of Main Channel Volume in the Lower Yellow River |
| 投稿时间：2025-06-09 修订日期：2025-11-21 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 黄河下游 主槽容积 时空演变 滞后响应 小浪底水库 |
| 英文关键词: Lower Yellow River main channel volume spatiotemporal evolution delayed response Xiaolangdi Reservoir |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学(U2243218) |
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| 摘要点击次数: 53 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本研究基于1970-2020年黄河下游铁谢至利津每年91个汛后大断面的数据，采用截锥法计算了各河段主槽容积，揭示了其时空演变规律，建立了主槽容积滞后响应模拟方法，并评估了小浪底水库对主槽容积的影响。研究结果表明:（1）主槽容积和单位河长主槽容积呈现“小幅增加（1970-1985年）-大幅减少（1985-2000年）-大幅增加（2000-2020年）”的演变趋势。空间上，游荡段主槽容积最大且波动显著，但各河段容积占比相对稳定，游荡段、过渡段、弯曲段平均占比分别为55%、19%、26%。2000-2020年主槽容积从10.39亿m3增至27.47亿m3，年均增长5%，相当于再造了1.65条黄河，水沙承载能力显著提升。（2）基于年平均流量和含沙量的河床演变滞后响应模型能较好模拟各河段主槽容积的历年演变过程（R2=0.8480~0.9325，MAPE=3.72%~10.02%），下游主槽容积达到准平衡的时间为7.6~13.2年。（3）有小浪底条件下主槽容积比1999年增加15.89亿m3，无小浪底条件下比1999年增加5.51亿m3，较有小浪底条件少10.38亿m3。无小浪底时主槽容积也在增加，说明当前阶段黄河下游主槽容积的增加是流域水土保持减沙和小浪底水库拦沙共同作用的结果。首次量化了小浪底水库拦沙、流域水土保持减沙对黄河下游主槽容积增加的贡献率，水保措施贡献率约为小浪底水库贡献率的一半。研究结果为黄河下游河道管理提供了科学依据，推动了河床演变学的发展。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study is based on annual post-flood cross-sectional data from 91 major sections between Tiexie and Lijin in the lower Yellow River from 1970 to 2020. Using the frustum method, the main channel volume of each river section was calculated, revealing its spatiotemporal evolution patterns. A delayed response simulation method for main channel volume was established, and the impact of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir on the main channel volume was evaluated. The results show: (1) The main channel volume and volume per unit length exhibited a trend of "slight increase (1970–1985) – significant decrease (1985–2000) – significant increase (2000–2020)." Spatially, the wandering reach had the largest main channel volume with notable fluctuations, but the proportional distribution among sections remained relatively stable, with average proportions of 55%, 19%, and 26% for the wandering, transitional, and meandering sections, respectively. From 2000 to 2020, the main channel volume increased from 1.039 billion m3 to 2.747 billion m3, with an annual growth rate of 5%, equivalent to recreating 1.65 Yellow Rivers, significantly enhancing its sediment and water carrying capacity. (2) The delayed response model, based on annual average flow and sediment concentration, effectively simulated the evolution of main channel volume (R2 = 0.8480–0.9325, MAPE = 3.72%–10.02%). The time to reach quasi-equilibrium for the main channel volume in the lower Yellow River ranged from 7.6 to 13.2 years. (3) With the Xiaolangdi Reservoir, the main channel volume increased by 1.589 billion m3 compared to 1999, whereas without it, the increase was only 551 million m3—10.38 billion m3 less. The expansion of the main channel even without Xiaolangdi suggests that the current increase in the main channel volume of the LYR stems from both watershed soil-water conservation measures (reducing sediment) and sediment retention by the Xiaolangdi Reservoir. The study quantified the contribution rates of sediment retention by the Xiaolangdi Reservoir and sediment reduction from soil and water conservation measures to the increase in the main channel volume of the LYR. The results show that the contribution of soil and water conservation measures is approximately half that of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir. The findings provide a scientific basis for the management of the lower Yellow River and contribute to the advancement of fluvial geomorphology. |
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