文章摘要
DeepSeek-R1模型在防汛智能推理中的应用探索研究
Research on the application of the DeepSeek-R1 model in intelligent flood prevention Reasoning
投稿时间:2025-07-22  修订日期:2026-01-26
DOI:
中文关键词: 生成式人工智能模型  DeepSeek-R1  防汛智能推理
英文关键词: Generative Artificial Intelligence model  DeepSeek-R1  flood prevent intelligent reasoning
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(52279009)
作者单位邮编
吕凯 河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室 210098
师鹏飞* 河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室 210000
肖家清 河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室 
张正一 河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室 
邱子骏 河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室 
林斌 福建省水利水电勘测设计研究院有限公司 
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中文摘要:
      生成式人工智能模型的发展为水文科学提供了新的研究范式,本文以DeepSeek-R1为生成式人工智能模型的代表,基于防汛业务的实际需求,通过产汇流过程推理和防汛调度方案智能快速推荐两个典型业务场景,探索其在防汛智能推理中的应用潜力、现有局限及发展前景。研究结果表明,DeepSeek-R1模型在产汇流过程推理任务中,能够有效结合机理背景知识与示例数据,学习流域降雨-径流数据、河道上下游流量数据之间的映射特征,并基于新情景进行产汇流过程推理。在防汛调度方案智能快速推荐方面,DeepSeek-R1展现出良好的需求理解与解析能力,可高效融合多源信息,解析复杂调度需求,快速识别雨-水-工情数据间的时空映射关系,并针对新降雨情景进行结果推理与调控方案推荐。DeepSeek-R1模型本质上属于概率生成模型,而非物理机制模型,其预测依赖于数据与内置知识之间的关联分析,而非物理方程计算或大数据拟合。因此,其在专业领域的应用效能与训练过程显著相关,需通过专业数据进行参数微调以提升模型在防汛调度领域的适配性。研究成果为探索生成式人工智能模型在防汛智能推理中的应用提供了技术路径与案例参考。
英文摘要:
      The development of generative AI models offers a new research paradigm for hydrological sciences. This paper takes DeepSeek-R1 as a representative of generative AI model and, based on the actual needs of flood control activities, explores its application potential, current limitations, and future prospects in intelligent flood prevention reasoning through two typical operational scenarios: the reasoning of rainfall-runoff process and the intelligent and rapid recommendation of flood prevent scheduling schemes. The research results show that the DeepSeek-R1 model can effectively combine mechanistic background knowledge with sample data in the rainfall-runoff process reasoning task, learn the mapping characteristics between watershed rainfall-runoff data and the upstream and downstream river discharge data, and perform reasoning on the runoff process under new scenarios. Regarding the intelligent rapid recommendation of flood control scheduling schemes, DeepSeek-R1 exhibits good capabilities in demand understanding and parsing. It can efficiently integrate multi-source information, analyze complex scheduling needs, quickly identify spatio-temporal mapping relationships among rainfall, hydrological, and condition data, and perform result reasoning and regulation scheme recommendations for new rainfall scenarios. The DeepSeek-R1 model is essentially a probabilistic generative model, as opposed to a physics-based mechanistic model. Its predictive capabilities are grounded in the correlation analysis between data and built-in knowledge, rather than physical equation calculations or big data fitting. Therefore, its effectiveness in specialized fields is significantly correlated with the training process, requiring parameter fine-tuning with professional data to enhance its adaptability in the field of flood prevention. This research findings provide a technical pathway and case reference for exploring the application of generative AI models in intelligent flood prevention reasoning.
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