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| 考虑水风光联合运行风险的主力水库调度规则提取方法 |
| Extraction method for dispatching rules of the main reservoir considering joint operation risks in hydro-wind-solar power systems |
| 投稿时间：2025-08-06 修订日期：2025-11-27 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 弃水 缺电 调度规则 风险态势感知 能源消纳 电力保供 |
| 英文关键词: abandoned water power shortage scheduling rules risk situation awareness energy integration power supply guarantee |
| 基金项目:智能电网重大专项(2030)资助(2025ZD0804900)；国家自然科学基金项目(52379004) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 水库调度规则对指导水库运行至关重要。针对水风光联合运行面临的弃水和缺电问题，提出了一种考虑水风光联合运行风险的主力水库调度规则提取方法。首先，构建水风光基地弃水与缺电风险工况多时间尺度来水评估准则，结合蒙特卡洛模拟和K-means聚类生成极端工况下的场景组合，以表征各风险工况并为模型提供输入。接着，考虑水风光基地水力约束、电力约束及新能源消纳规则，提出梯级电站在各风险工况下的调度策略，分别建立满足未来固定时段内不弃水、不缺电的主力水库调度图优化模型。最后，在调度周期内采用混合整数线性规划(mixed-integer linear programming, MILP)模型逐时段求解，提取主力水库弃水风险上线和电力保供下线。以中国西南某流域水风光一体化基地为工程背景进行主力水库调度规则提取，并设置对比规则与多种参数场景验证所提方法的有效性。结果表明：所提规则可有效实现水风光基地运行风险态势感知并通过水位调控显著降低运行风险，相较于对比规则可实现汛期无弃水、枯期无缺电；同时所提方法在各种参数场景下均能有效提取主力水库调度规则，为新能源高速发展背景下水风光基地稳定运行提供理论支撑。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Reservoir scheduling rules are pivotal for guiding reservoir operations. To mitigate water abandonment and power shortage risks in integrated hydro-wind-solar systems, this study proposes a method for deriving main reservoir scheduling rules, accounting for joint operation risks. Multi-timescale inflow assessment indicators for water abandonment and power shortage risks are constructed, with Monte Carlo simulation and K-means clustering generating extreme condition scenario combinations to characterize risks and serve as model inputs. Considering hydraulic, electrical, and renewable energy integration constraints, optimized scheduling strategies for cascade hydropower stations are developed, and a main reservoir scheduling model is formulated to ensure no water abandonment or power shortages within fixed future periods. This model is transformed into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model, solved hourly within each scheduling cycle, to determine the upper bounds for water abandonment risk and the lower bounds for power supply assurance. Applied to a hydro-wind-solar base in southwest China, the effectiveness of the method is validated through comparative rules and multi-scenario tests, achieving no water abandonment in the flood season and no power shortages in the dry season compared to baseline rules. The approach consistently derives robust scheduling rules across scenarios, providing theoretical support for stable hydro-wind-solar operations under rapid renewable energy growth. |
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