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| 基于电量平衡的梯级水库水光互补周调节：基础理论和数学模型 |
| Fundamentals and mathematical framework for hydro-solar complementary weekly regulation of cascade reservoirs based on energy balance |
| 投稿时间：2025-08-18 修订日期：2025-12-12 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 梯级水库 水光互补 周调节 电量平衡 数学模型 |
| 英文关键词: Cascade Reservoir Hydro–Photovoltaic Complementarity Weekly Regulation Energy Balance Mathematical Model |
| 基金项目:国家能源局“十四五”能源领域科技创新项目“水电基地可再生能源协同开发与运行关键技术”(持0203162025) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为了利用具有90%保证率的水电资源电量平抑具有10%保证率的光伏资源电量，向电网输送与水电相同保证率的新能源保证电量，本文研究梯级水库水光互补电量周调节的基础理论，并提出相应的数学模型。本研究提出确定光伏资源及其随机特性和弃光量的方法，推导了水库水位与发电势能关系的理论公式和实用公式。在此基础上建立了梯级水库水光互补电量周调节的数学模型。结合金沙江上游水风光新能源基地规划，对叶巴滩和拉哇两个季调节电站在光伏装机12000 MW条件下的光伏日发电量和弃光量开展定量分析。在这一简单线性的梯级周调节算法基础上开展月调节、年调节和多年调节梯级滚动计算，可以实现时空多维度大规模数值模拟，为水光互补基地规划论证奠定科学基础。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to utilize the hydropower resources with a 90% guaranteed output rate to balance the power output of photovoltaic (PV) resources with a 10% guaranteed output rate, thereby delivering new energy power to the grid with the same reliability as hydropower, this study investigated the fundamental theory of hydro-solar complementary weekly regulation of cascade reservoirs and proposed a corresponding mathematical model. A method was developed to determine PV resource characteristics, their stochastic properties, and curtailment levels. Theoretical and practical formulas describing the relationship between reservoir water level and power generation potential energy were derived. Based on these formulations, a weekly regulation model for cascade reservoir hydro-solar hybrid systems was established. Taking the renewable energy base in the upper Jinsha River as a case study, quantitative analyses of daily PV generation and curtailment were conducted for the Yebatan and Lawa seasonal regulating reservoirs with a PV installed capacity of 12,000 MW. On the basis of this simple linear weekly regulation algorithm, monthly, annual, and multi-year cascade rolling calculations can be performed to achieve large-scale spatiotemporal numerical simulations, providing a scientific foundation for the planning and demonstration of hydro-solar complementary energy bases. |
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