| 郑小康,王煜,张迪,马超,王浩.黄河流域水资源系统韧性驱动要素与调控策略[J].水利学报,2025,56(10):1253-1266 |
| 黄河流域水资源系统韧性驱动要素与调控策略 |
| Driving factors and regulation strategies for resilience of water resources system in the Yellow River Basin |
| 投稿时间：2024-09-15 修订日期：2025-08-18 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240722 |
| 中文关键词: 水资源系统 韧性策略 驱动因子 黄河流域 |
| 英文关键词: water resource system resilience strategy driving factor Yellow River Basin |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目（2022YFC3202300）；黄委优秀青年人才科技项目（HQK-202318）；中国博士后科学基金项目（2023M741324） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 流域水资源系统是一个气象水文-水网-经济社会-生态环境复合系统，极端枯水下流域水资源安全保障不仅要关注缺水量，还需要考虑缺水破坏过程和破坏后的响应过程，确保经历严重缺水后流域水资源系统可以恢复至正常状态，即具备应对极端枯水的韧性。本文以黄河流域为研究对象，考虑极端枯水扰动下流域水资源系统中水资源的自然-社会二元响应过程，提出3Rs（Robustness-Resistance-Recovery）韧性内涵框架，包括系统自身的稳定性（鲁棒性），在短期内承受压力的能力（抵抗性），以及后期逐渐恢复至正常状态的能力（恢复性）。构建水资源系统韧性评价指标体系，利用组合赋权的改进TOPSIS排序法对1990—2022序列年的水资源系统韧性进行量化，通过Mann-Kendall检验方法得出其内涵和耦合作用呈显著上升趋势。基于大系统理论，考虑水资源多链路因素影响，运用地理探测器结合K-Means聚类算法定量甄别出黄河流域水资源系统韧性演变的关键驱动因素，通过全局敏感性分析验证识别结果稳健性，提出提升流域水资源系统韧性的调控方向建议。从供给侧和需求侧考虑调控措施设置情景方案，分析提出黄河流域应对极端枯水的水资源系统韧性调控策略。研究成果为黄河韧性流域建设和提高流域水资源安全保障水平提供理论技术支撑。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The water resources system of a river basin is a complex system of meteorology and hydrology-water network-economy and society-ecological environment. Under extreme drought condition， ensuring the water resources security in the river basin should not only focus on the amount of water shortage，but also need to consider the process of water shortage damage and the response process. Ensure that the water resources system in the river basin can be restored to normal after experiencing severe water shortage，that is，have the resilience to cope with extreme dry water. The resilience means that when facing external shocks such as climate change and drought，the system can maintain its function，structure，and service capacity through a series of regulatory measures and dynamic responses. This paper utilizes the Yellow River Basin as a case study，examining the dual natural-social response processes of water resources within the basin's system under conditions of extreme low-flow perturbation. The study proposes a 3Rs（Robustness-Resistance-Recovery）resilience framework，encompassing the system's inherent stability （robustness），its capacity to withstand short-term pressures（resistance），and its ability to gradually recover to a normal state post-disturbance（recovery）. A comprehensive 16-index evaluation system was constructed，and the water resources system resilience was quantified using an improved TOPSIS model with combined weighting for the period from 1990 to 2022. The Mann-Kendall test revealed that both the connotation and coupling effects of the system exhibit a significant upward trend. Based on large systems theory，key drivers of water resources system resilience evolution in the Yellow River Basin were identified through a combination of geo-detectors and the K-Means clustering algorithm. The identification results were validated through global sensitivity analysis，leading to recommendations for enhancing the basin's water resources system resilience. The study analyzes and proposes regulation strategies for the Yellow River Basin to cope with extreme water depletion，considering scenarios of regulatory measures from both the supply and demand sides. The research provides theoretical and technical support for constructing a resilient Yellow River Basin and improving water resources security in the basin. |
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