| 林梦珂,申建建,艾显仁,王昱倩,李红刚,程春田.水风光互补系统梯级水电站汛前蓄能控制风险分析方法[J].水利学报,2025,56(11):1529-1541 |
| 水风光互补系统梯级水电站汛前蓄能控制风险分析方法 |
| Risk analysis method for pre-flood energy storage control of cascade hydropower stations in hydro-wind-solar hybrid systems |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-09 修订日期：2025-11-23 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240805 |
| 中文关键词: 水风光互补 风险分析 水库关键水位 汛前消落水位 长期优化调度 |
| 英文关键词: hydro-wind-solar complementarity risk analysis critical reservoir water level pre-flood drawdown level long-term optimal dispatching |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（U23A20667） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 22 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 流域梯级水电站汛前蓄能控制直接影响水电对新能源电力、电量的补偿支撑作用，控制不当可能导致水风光互补系统面临较高的缺电、弃电和弃水风险。本文提出了梯级水电汛前蓄能控制风险分析方法，建立了枯水期消落优化模型和蓄水调整期调度规则，以确定梯级水电站汛前蓄能控制的模拟运行准则；构建了枯水期缺电、汛期弃水、年末蓄能不足、风光弃电指标集，以量化多阶段、多源运行风险；耦合蒙特卡洛和模糊隶属度以表征多维不确定性场景及其概率，并通过模拟分析给出了汛前蓄能与水风光互补效益、风险概率与风险损失的定量关系。实际工程验证分析表明：丰水年汛前蓄能大于26.5亿kWh时有较大的弃水风险；平水年应控制在44亿kWh以下以避免突出的弃水和枯水期缺电损失；枯水年汛前蓄能宜控制在合理区间，最高和最低控制方案下，分别面临高达100%枯水期缺电和30.6%年末蓄能不足的风险。本文提出的控制风险分析方法有效量化了汛前蓄能的多维风险，可为调度人员提供有价值的决策信息。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Pre-flood energy storage control of cascade hydropower reservoirs directly affects the compensatory support of hydropower to new energy generation and electricity supply. Improper control may lead to high risks of power shortage and wind-solar curtailment and water abandonment in hydro-wind-solar hybrid systems. This paper presents a risk analysis method for pre-flood energy storage control. An optimization model for drawdown during the dry period and flood storage scheduling rules were developed to define simulation-based operational criteria for pre-flood energy storage control. A set of risk indicators—including dry-season power shortages，flood-season water abandonment， insufficient year-end energy storage，and wind-solar curtailment—was constructed to quantify multi-source，multistage operational risks. Monte Carlo simulation coupled with fuzzy membership functions was applied to characterize multidimensional uncertain scenarios and their probabilities，establishing a link between pre-flood energy storage and associated risks through simulation analysis. Actual engineering validation analysis indicates that in wet years， pre-flood storage over 2.65 billion kWh entails significant water abandonment risk；in normal years，it should be controlled below 4.4 billion kWh to avoid prominent water abandonment and dry-season power shortage losses；in dry years，the highest and lowest control schemes may face up to 100% dry-season power shortage risk and 30.6% risk of insufficient year-end energy storage， respectively. This risk analysis method effectively quantifies the multidimensional risks of pre-flood energy storage and provides key decision-making support. |
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