| 甘甜,王超,蒋云钟,韩昆.考虑受水区需水时空不确定的调水工程水量调度与滚动优化研究[J].水利学报,2025,56(12):1633-1646 |
| 考虑受水区需水时空不确定的调水工程水量调度与滚动优化研究 |
| Research on water regulation and rolling optimization of water transfer projects considering the spatiotemporal uncertainty of water demand in water receiving areas |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-10 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240812 |
| 中文关键词: 调水工程 水量调度 滚动优化研究 需水不确定性 |
| 英文关键词: water transfer project water regulation rolling optimization spatiotemporal uncertainty of water demand |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（52394234）；中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项项目（WR0145B052021，WR110145B0122025）；江苏省水利科技项目（2022054）；国家重点研发计划项目中国和韩国政府间联合研究项目（2024YFE0100100）；中国中铁股份有限公司科技研究开发计划项目（2025-重大-08） |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 19 |
| 全文下载次数: 14 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 受气候变化与人类活动影响，调水工程受水区需水过程呈现较大的不确定性，基于传统的确定性需水量调度理论方法制定的调度计划执行率不高，调度方案的韧性亟待提升。本研究以胶东调水工程为例，开展了考虑受水区需水时空不确定的水量调度与滚动优化研究。时间变化层面，在三个时刻：历史时刻、年度调度方案制定时与一段调度期后，分别采用数据挖掘模型（DDM）、机会约束规划（CCP）与滚动优化技术，按照“定性分析-定量分布函数分析-滚动修正”的技术链条，对受水区需水的时变性进行分析。空间变化层面，为避免某一县市出现极端缺水，采用主成分-层次分析（PCA-AHP）需水量计算法，将各市尺度需水细分为县尺度需水。针对年水量计划编制，构建了基于CCP的年水量调度模型与滚动优化调度模型，采用迭代求解法进行模型计算，并对调度方案进行可变模糊评价。经可变模糊评价，除95%保证率下的非全年调度方案为良好外，其它方案均达到优秀等级。与基于确定性需水量的常规调度方案相比，本研究所提出的调度方案能适应受水区需水量时空不确定变化，使受水区各地市缺水率更为均衡，实行滚动优化后的调度方案执行率可达100%。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Affected by climate change and human activities，the water demand process in the water-receiving areas of water transfer projects shows significant uncertainty. The traditional regulation theories and methods based on deterministic water demand exhibit a low execution rate of regulation plans，necessitating an urgent enhancement of its resilience. This study takes the Jiaodong Water Transfer Project as an example to conduct research on water regulation and rolling optimization considering the spatiotemporal uncertainty of water demand in the water-receiving areas. In the temporal dimension，data mining decomposition model（DDM），chance-constrained programming（CCP），and rolling optimization techniques were applied at three moments：historical conditions，during the formation of annual regulation scheme，and after a regulation period，following the technical chain of“qualitative analysis—quantitative distribution function analysis—rolling correction”，to account for the temporal variability of water demand in the receiving areas. In the spatial dimension，the principal component analysis-analytic hierarchy process（PCA-AHP） water demand calculation method was used to subdivide the municipal-scale water demands into county-scale water demands，so as to prevent extreme water shortages in any specific county or city. For the annual water plan formulation，an annual water regulation model based on CCP and a rolling optimization regulation model were constructed. The models were calculated using iterative algorithms，and variable fuzzy evaluation was conducted for the regulation schemes. Based on the variable fuzzy evaluation，all schemes achieved an“excellent”rating except for the nonannual scheduling scheme under a 95% guarantee rate，which was rated as“good.”Compared with conventional regulation schemes based on deterministic water demand，the regulation schemes proposed in this study can adapt to the spatiotemporal uncertainty of water demand in the water-receiving areas，balance the water shortage rates across cities in the water-receiving areas and achieve a 100% execution rate after rolling optimization. |
|
查看全文
查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 关闭 |