| 孙博凯,郭生练,钟斯睿,徐长江,熊丰,梁志明.考虑长江上游水库群调蓄影响的寸滩站设计洪水计算分析[J].水利学报,2025,56(8):1002-1011 |
| 考虑长江上游水库群调蓄影响的寸滩站设计洪水计算分析 |
| Analysis of design flood estimation at Cuntan station considering regulation impact of upstream reservoir groups on the Yangtze River |
| 投稿时间：2025-01-14 修订日期：2025-06-06 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20250026 |
| 中文关键词: 设计洪水 水库调蓄 非一致性 洪水地区组成法 寸滩水文站 |
| 英文关键词: design flood reservoir regulation non-stationarity flood regional composition Cuntan hydrological station |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金长江联合基金项目（U2340205） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于三峡入库寸滩水文站1892—2022年流量系列与历史洪水调查资料，分别采用时变P-Ⅲ型适线法、最可能和最不利洪水地区组成法，计算推求考虑上游水库群调蓄影响的寸滩站设计洪水及设计洪水过程线，并与天然情况下的设计值进行对比分析。结果表明：①以改进水库系数为协变量的时变P-Ⅲ型分布模型能捕捉到年最大洪峰洪量的非一致性下降特征；②基于Vine copula函数的最可能和最不利洪水地区组成法可有效求解寸滩站的设计洪水；③上游水库群调蓄影响对寸滩站设计洪水的削减显著，三种方法计算的1000年一遇设计洪峰和7天洪量，与原设计成果相比分别平均减少了34.5%和28.8%。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the flow data series from 1892 to 2022 and the investigated historical flood events of Cuntan Hydrological Station，which controls the inflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir，the time-varying P-III curve fitting method，as well as the most likely and the most unfavorable flood regional composition methods，were employed to estimate design floods considering the regulation impacts of upstream cascade reservoirs. The design flood hydrographs were derived and compared with the original design values. The results show that：（1）The time-varying P-III model with the modified reservoir index as the covariate can capture the non-stationary decreasing trend of the annual maximum flood series；（2）The most likely and the most unfavorable flood regional composition methods based on the Vine copula can effectively estimate design floods；（3）The regulation of upstream cascade reservoirs significantly reduces the design flood at the Cuntan Station. Compared with the original design values，the 1000-year design peak discharge and 7-day flood volume estimated by these three methods are reduced by 34.5% and 28.8% on average， respectively. |
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