| 吕翠美,李雪峰,凌敏华,吴泽宁,胡玉光,李爽.特大干旱情景下供水侧极限调控与生态经济效应的响应关系研究[J].水利学报,2025,56(9):1201-1214 |
| 特大干旱情景下供水侧极限调控与生态经济效应的响应关系研究 |
| Study on the response relationship between water supply ultimate regulation and ecological economic effects under severe drought scenarios |
| 投稿时间：2024-02-29 修订日期：2025-07-17 |
| DOI：10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20240103 |
| 中文关键词: 特大干旱 供水侧 极限调控 能值理论 生态经济效应 |
| 英文关键词: severe drought water supply side ultimate regulation emergy theory ecological and economic effects |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划课题（2021YFC3000204） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为降低特大干旱灾害损失、保障经济社会发展，需要突破常规调控限制，极限挖潜增供，如利用水库死库容供水、超采地下水等。供水侧的极限调控可增加供水，减少干旱损失，产生正效应，但同时也会给供水系统带来功能的损伤和生态环境的破坏，产生负效应。本文综合考虑供水侧极限调控措施带来的社会、经济和生态环境影响，构建了调控效应构成体系，并借鉴生态经济学能值理论和分析方法提出效应量化体系，最后以云南省楚雄州为例解析了极限调控措施的增供水量、调控成本及生态经济效应三者之间的响应关系。计算结果表明，启用应急备用水源和临时应急供水两项调控措施的单方水净效益最大，但增供水量有限，而动用水库死库容的总增供水量和调控总效益最大。综合讨论，启用应急备用水源、动用水库死库容和临时应急供水是楚雄州特大干旱情景下应优先考虑的调控措施。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To mitigate severe drought disaster losses and ensure socio-economic growth，it's crucial to overcome conventional regulatory boundaries and augment potential supply，such as utilizing reservoir dead storage capacity and groundwater overexploitation，which may increase water supply and mitigate drought loss，delivering a positive impact，but could also inflict functional damage and destruction on the water supply system，leading to adverse effects. In this paper，under the comprehensive consideration of the social，economic and ecological environment impact brought by the extreme regulation measures on the water supply side，the ecological and economic effect com position system is constructed. Based on the emergy theory and analysis method of ecological economics，the effect quantification system is proposed. Taking Chuxiong Prefecture of Yunnan Province as an example，the response relationship between the increase of water supply，regulation cost and ecological and economic effects of the extreme regulation measures is analyzed. The results show that the two control measures of emergency backup water source and temporary emergency water supply have the largest net benefit of unilateral water，but the increase of water supply is limited，while the total increase of water supply and the total benefit of regulation and control are the largest when the dead storage capacity of the reservoir is used. Comprehensive discussion，the use of emergency standby water sources，the use of reservoir dead storage capacity and temporary emergency water supply are the priority control measures under the severe drought situation in Chuxiong Prefecture. |
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