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Assessment framework for maximum credible earthquake hazards at dam sites based on
direct numerical simulation method

1
2
1

WANG Jinting ，WANG Xiangchao ，ZHANG Chuhan ，DU Xiuli 2

（1. Department of Hydraulic Engineering，Tsinghua University，Beijing 100084，China；

2. School of Civil Engineering，Beijing University of Technology，Beijing 100124，China）

Abstract：Many high dams in western China are located in regions with high seismic intensity and face the risk of
experiencing ground motions exceeding design levels. To reasonably assess the extreme earthquake scenarios that the

dam site may encounter，this study introduces the concept of Maximum Credible Earthquake （MCE）hazard for the

dam site，considering the randomness and uncertainty of the spatiotemporal rupture process of earthquake faults，and
establishes a corresponding assessment framework. This framework employs physics-based broadband ground-motion

simulations，taking into account key factors such as specific faults around the dam，propagation path，and local site

conditions. It generates a vast number of MCE scenarios，statistically analyzes the probability distribution of ground
motion parameters at the dam site，and determines engineering design parameters. The proposed assessment frame⁃

work provides a more rational seismic load for seismic design and safety evaluation in regions prone to strong earth⁃
quakes，which is of great significance for ensuring the seismic safety of major hydropower projects.

Keywords：maximum credible earthquake hazard；maximum credible ground motion；direct numerical simulation；

engineering design parameters
（责任编辑：王 婧）

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