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Risk analysis method for pre-flood energy storage control of cascade hydropower stations in
hydro-wind-solar hybrid systems

1 1 2 2 2 1

LIN Mengke ，SHEN Jianjian ，AI Xianren ，WANG Yuqian ，LI Honggang ，CHENG Chuntian

（1. Dalian University of Technology，Dalian 116024，China；2. Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc，Kunming 650214，China）

Abstract：Pre-flood energy storage control of cascade hydropower reservoirs directly affects the compensatory sup‐
port of hydropower to new energy generation and electricity supply. Improper control may lead to high risks of power
shortage and wind-solar curtailment and water abandonment in hydro-wind-solar hybrid systems. This paper presents
a risk analysis method for pre-flood energy storage control. An optimization model for drawdown during the dry period
and flood storage scheduling rules were developed to define simulation-based operational criteria for pre-flood energy
storage control. A set of risk indicators—including dry-season power shortages，flood-season water abandonment，

insufficient year-end energy storage，and wind-solar curtailment—was constructed to quantify multi-source，multi-

stage operational risks. Monte Carlo simulation coupled with fuzzy membership functions was applied to characterize

multidimensional uncertain scenarios and their probabilities，establishing a link between pre-flood energy storage
and associated risks through simulation analysis. Actual engineering validation analysis indicates that in wet years，
pre-flood storage over 2.65 billion kWh entails significant water abandonment risk；in normal years，it should be con‐

trolled below 4.4 billion kWh to avoid prominent water abandonment and dry-season power shortage losses；in dry
years，the highest and lowest control schemes may face up to 100% dry-season power shortage risk and 30.6% risk of

insufficient year-end energy storage， respectively. This risk analysis method effectively quantifies the multi-

dimensional risks of pre-flood energy storage and provides key decision-making support.

Keywords：hydro-wind-solar complementarity；risk analysis；critical reservoir water level；pre-flood drawdown

level；long-term optimal dispatching

（责任编辑：尹 婧）

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