Page 121 - 水利学报2021年第52卷第4期

Earth-Science Reviews，2014，132：1-12 .
［ 42］ 罗岚心，姜彤，孙赫敏，等 . 珠江流域旱涝变化及其与大气环流关系研究［J］. 干旱区资源与环境，2017，
31（4）：142-147 .

Changes of drought characteristics in future in Pearl River Basin describing by
a new comprehensive standardized drought index

1 1 1，2 3 4
LI Jun ，WU Xushu ，WANG Zhaoli ，YIN Jiabo ，CHEN Xiaohong
（1. School of Civil Engineering and Transportation，State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building Science，
South China University of Technology，Guangzhou 510640，China；
2. Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Center of Safety and Greenization for Water Conservancy Project，Guangzhou 510641，China；
3. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science，Wuhan University， Wuhan 430072， China；
4. Center for Water Resources and Environment，Sun Yat-Sen University，Guangzhou 510275，China）

Abstract： Developing a comprehensive standardized drought index has significantly academic and realistic
value. Utilizing Copula function，a new comprehensive standardized drought index （CSDI），which can simul⁃
taneously monitor meteorological， hydrological and agricultural features of a drought process， was developed
by combining hydrometeorological factors such as precipitation，evapotranspiration，and runoff and soil mois⁃
ture. Taking the Pearl River Basin （PRB） as an example， the changes of comprehensive drought in future
scenarios were analyzed. The results show that：（1） Good correlation （P < 0.01） between CSDI and stan⁃
dardized precipitation evapotranspiration index （SPEI）standardized runoff index （SRI）self-calibrating Palm⁃
/
/
er drought severity index are observed，and it includes the advantages of these three drought indices to rep⁃
resent different droughts. The CSDI can well monitor drought beginning，duration and end. （2） In the RCP
2.6 scenario （2050-2100）， the comprehensive drought severity and duration in the PRB will decrease by
4.2% and 3.5% respectively，compared with the historical period. However，in the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenar⁃
ios，they increase by 15.3% and 11.5% respectively. （3） In the RCP2.6 scenario，when the joint return pe⁃
riod exceeds the threshold by 100 years， the designed drought severity and duration in the PRB will de⁃
crease by 13.5% and 6.5% respectively， while in the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios， they increase by 20.5%
and 22.1% respectively.
Keywords： drought； comprehensive standardized drought index； climate change； future scenarios； Pearl
River Basin

（责任编辑：韩 昆）

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