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Partition irrigation method based on BMA method and IT2FS theory

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SHAO Dongguo ，ZOU Liangfeng ，GU Wenquan ，NONG Xizhi ，WANG He ，WANG Bai 2
（1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science，Wuhan University，Wuhan 430072，China；
2. Heilongjiang Province Hydraulic Research Institute，Harbin 150080，China）
Abstract： The management of irrigation water in the Songnen Plain（SNP） is facing complex issues and
challenges such as climate change，groundwater and wetland degradation. This study takes the Heping Irriga⁃
tion District in the SNP as an example. Through the rainfall-groundwater dynamic monitoring field experi⁃
ment from 2017 to 2019，the law of groundwater variations is revealed. Using the cluster analysis and spa⁃
tial overlay analysis methods， the boundary of zoning irrigation based on groundwater depth is proposed.
The Bayesian Model Averaging （BMA） method is applied to integrate the production simulation series of dif⁃
ferent irrigation scenarios with the AquaCrop and Jensen models，which improves the accuracy of the yield
simulation under the conditions of subregional groundwater depth. Based on the Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Set
（IT2FS） theory， while the risk preference factors are introduced to describe the risk attitude of deci⁃
sion-makers，and the district irrigation model suitable for different decision-makers risk preferences is pro⁃
posed. The results show that the boundary of the groundwater depth in the study area is 1.5 m; the BMA
method is beneficial to improve the accuracy of yield simulation， with the correlation coefficient between
the simulated and measured yield exceeds 0.95. Additionally， compared with the current irrigation system，
zoning irrigation can reduce the amount of irrigation by 15%-37.6%， and reduce the amount of groundwa⁃
ter extraction by more than 12%. This article provides a new basis and method for optimizing rice intensive
production irrigation methods in shallow groundwater irrigation areas and protecting local river，lake and wet⁃
land ecosystems.
Keywords：groundwater dynamics；district irrigation；risk attitude；interval type-2 fuzzy set；Bayesian mod⁃
el averaging；optimization of irrigation scheduling
（责任编辑：王冰伟）

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