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Analysis of vegetation change and its impact on natural runoff in the mountain area of the
Yongding River Basin from 1982 to 2015

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DU Yong 1，2 ，LI Jianzhu ，NIU Kaijie ，FENG Ping ，HU Qingfang ，ZHENG Yanchen 1
（1. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety，Tianjin University，Tianjin 300072，China；
2. Yongding River Basin Investment Co.，Ltd.，Beijing 100193，China；
3. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering，
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute，Nanjing 210029，China）
Abstract：Based on the monitoring data of NDVI，temperature，precipitation，and runoff，the spatial relationship between
NDVI and temperature，precipitation and residual was studied respectively by constructing geographically weighted regres⁃
sion model，then the influence of NDVI change on natural runoff attenuation was quantitatively estimated. The result
showed that: the overall change of land use pattern was minimum from 1982 to 2015 in the mountain area of Yongding Riv⁃
er，and NDVI of vegetation increased significantly at both annual and seasonal scales. The mean and trend values of spatial
regression parameters，residual of NDVI and precipitation or average temperature had obvious spatial heterogeneity. The
mean values of regression parameters and residual were positive at different time scales，while their trends fluctuated obvi⁃
ously. It indicated that precipitation，temperature and human activities all can increase NDVI value，while the trend of
each factor had significant difference. The natural runoff had a significant attenuation trend. Due to underlying surface
change with the increase of NDVI，the contribution rate of the natural runoff attenuation of typical section was about 80%，
which indicated that the natural runoff was highly sensitive to vegetation change by Budyko equation. Great attention should
be paid to the impact of vegetation conservation in the watershed on the attenuation of natural runoff.
Keywords： NDVI；GWR model；precipitation；average temperature；natural runoff；the mountainous area of Yongding
River

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