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                       Researchonsufficientsamplelengthforcalculationofhydrologicalfrequencyof
                                       GEVdistributionbasedonstatisticalinference

                                                        1
                                                                       1,2
                                                GELiting,SONGSongbai
                       (1.CollegeofWaterResourcesandArchitecturalEngineering,NorthwestA&FUniversity,Yangling 712100,China;
                             2.KeyLaboratoryofAgriculturalSoilandWaterEngineeringinAridAreaofMinistryofEducation,
                                           NorthwestA&FUniversity,Yangling 712100,China)


                  Abstract:Aimingatthesufficiencyofsamplelengthforhydrologicalfrequencycalculation,thispaperdefinesthe
                  conceptofsufficientsamplelengthaccordingtotheasymptoticnormalityofmaximum likelihoodestimator ,and
                  combinesbootstrapwithShapiro - Wilknormalitytesttodeterminethesufficientsamplelengthrequiredfordifferent
                  designfrequenciesofagivenhydrologicalsequence.Thismethoddoesnotdependonthemodelandempirical
                  rules ,andcanavoidtheinfluenceofsubjectivefactors,whichcanbeappliedtohydrologicalcalculation.Inorder
                  toverifythefeasibilityofthemethod,thegeneralizedextremevalue(GEV)distributionisselectedfornumerical
                  simulationanalysis,andthesufficientsamplelengthn a requiredforthecalculationofdesignvaluesatdifferent
                  frequenciesiscalculated.Tothisend , therelativeconfidenceinterval(RCI) andtheaveragerelativeerror
                  (RMAE)areselectedastheevaluationerrorindexes,andthecurvefittingmethodisusedtoanalyzethepotential
                  relationship between differentparameters , frequencies, parameterestimation methods and sample length.
                  Numericalsimulationresultsshowthat:(i)Throughthenormalitytest,therationalityofthemethodinthispaper
                  isverified.Theerrorindexcurveisusedtoanalyzethederivedresult n a ,showingtheregularityofsufficientsam
                  plelengthn a underdifferentparametersandfrequencies,whichdemonstratesthecorrectnessofthemethodinthis
                  paper.(ii)Therelationshipbetweentheerrorindexandthesamplelengthisapower - lawfunction.Whenthe
                  samplelengthreachesacertainsamplesize,theRCIandRMAEfittingcurvesofthetwoparameterestimation
                  methodshave intersections.Afterthe intersection , the maximum likelihood estimation method showsgood
                  estimationperformance.(iii)Inthefrequencyrangeof10%- 75%,underdifferentparameters,thesamplelength
                  of30basicallysatisfiesthesufficientconditionsforparameterestimation.Outsidethefrequencyrange,thesuffi
                  cientsamplelengthrequiredbythemomentmethodandthemaximumlikelihoodestimationmethodismuchlarger
                  than30,andthelargerthereturnperiod,thelongerthesamplerequired.Finally,theproposedmethodisapplied
                  toeighttypicalrunoff,precipitationandfloodpeaksequencesinChina,andthesufficientsamplelengthrequired
                  forcalculationunderdifferentfrequenciesandreturnperiodsisobtained.Thevarianceanalysis (ANOVA)testis
                  carriedouttofurtherdemonstratethefeasibilityofthemethod.
                  Keywords:GEVdistribution;sufficientsamplelength;maximumlikelihoodestimation;methodofmoment;as
                  ymptoticnormality;curvefitting;normalitytest
                                                                                    (责任编辑:耿庆斋)

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