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Researchonsufficientsamplelengthforcalculationofhydrologicalfrequencyof
GEVdistributionbasedonstatisticalinference
1
1,2
GELiting,SONGSongbai
(1.CollegeofWaterResourcesandArchitecturalEngineering,NorthwestA&FUniversity,Yangling 712100,China;
2.KeyLaboratoryofAgriculturalSoilandWaterEngineeringinAridAreaofMinistryofEducation,
NorthwestA&FUniversity,Yangling 712100,China)
Abstract:Aimingatthesufficiencyofsamplelengthforhydrologicalfrequencycalculation,thispaperdefinesthe
conceptofsufficientsamplelengthaccordingtotheasymptoticnormalityofmaximum likelihoodestimator ,and
combinesbootstrapwithShapiro - Wilknormalitytesttodeterminethesufficientsamplelengthrequiredfordifferent
designfrequenciesofagivenhydrologicalsequence.Thismethoddoesnotdependonthemodelandempirical
rules ,andcanavoidtheinfluenceofsubjectivefactors,whichcanbeappliedtohydrologicalcalculation.Inorder
toverifythefeasibilityofthemethod,thegeneralizedextremevalue(GEV)distributionisselectedfornumerical
simulationanalysis,andthesufficientsamplelengthn a requiredforthecalculationofdesignvaluesatdifferent
frequenciesiscalculated.Tothisend , therelativeconfidenceinterval(RCI) andtheaveragerelativeerror
(RMAE)areselectedastheevaluationerrorindexes,andthecurvefittingmethodisusedtoanalyzethepotential
relationship between differentparameters , frequencies, parameterestimation methods and sample length.
Numericalsimulationresultsshowthat:(i)Throughthenormalitytest,therationalityofthemethodinthispaper
isverified.Theerrorindexcurveisusedtoanalyzethederivedresult n a ,showingtheregularityofsufficientsam
plelengthn a underdifferentparametersandfrequencies,whichdemonstratesthecorrectnessofthemethodinthis
paper.(ii)Therelationshipbetweentheerrorindexandthesamplelengthisapower - lawfunction.Whenthe
samplelengthreachesacertainsamplesize,theRCIandRMAEfittingcurvesofthetwoparameterestimation
methodshave intersections.Afterthe intersection , the maximum likelihood estimation method showsgood
estimationperformance.(iii)Inthefrequencyrangeof10%- 75%,underdifferentparameters,thesamplelength
of30basicallysatisfiesthesufficientconditionsforparameterestimation.Outsidethefrequencyrange,thesuffi
cientsamplelengthrequiredbythemomentmethodandthemaximumlikelihoodestimationmethodismuchlarger
than30,andthelargerthereturnperiod,thelongerthesamplerequired.Finally,theproposedmethodisapplied
toeighttypicalrunoff,precipitationandfloodpeaksequencesinChina,andthesufficientsamplelengthrequired
forcalculationunderdifferentfrequenciesandreturnperiodsisobtained.Thevarianceanalysis (ANOVA)testis
carriedouttofurtherdemonstratethefeasibilityofthemethod.
Keywords:GEVdistribution;sufficientsamplelength;maximumlikelihoodestimation;methodofmoment;as
ymptoticnormality;curvefitting;normalitytest
(责任编辑:耿庆斋)
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