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Analysis of design flood estimation at Cuntan station considering regulation impact of
upstream reservoir groups on the Yangtze River

1 1 1 2 2 3

SUN Bokai ，GUO Shenglian ，ZHONG Sirui ，XU Changjiang ，XIONG Feng ，LIANG Zhiming

（1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management，Wuhan University，Wuhan 430072，China；2. Bureau of

Hydrology，Changjiang Water Resources Commission，Wuhan 430010，China；3. China Yangtze Power Co.，Ltd.，Yichang 443000，China）

Abstract：Based on the flow data series from 1892 to 2022 and the investigated historical flood events of Cuntan
Hydrological Station，which controls the inflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir，the time-varying P-III curve fitting

method，as well as the most likely and the most unfavorable flood regional composition methods，were employed to

estimate design floods considering the regulation impacts of upstream cascade reservoirs. The design flood hydro‐

graphs were derived and compared with the original design values. The results show that：（1）The time-varying P-III

model with the modified reservoir index as the covariate can capture the non-stationary decreasing trend of the annual

maximum flood series；（2）The most likely and the most unfavorable flood regional composition methods based on the

Vine copula can effectively estimate design floods；（3）The regulation of upstream cascade reservoirs significantly
reduces the design flood at the Cuntan Station. Compared with the original design values，the 1000-year design peak

discharge and 7-day flood volume estimated by these three methods are reduced by 34.5% and 28.8% on average，
respectively.

Keywords：design flood；reservoir regulation；non-stationarity；flood regional composition；Cuntan hydrological station

（责任编辑：耿庆斋）
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