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Cold wave grades and air temperature thresholds during wintertime water diversion in the
Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China

1 1 1 2 1 1

WANG Tao ，SUN Zezhao ，GUO Xinlei ，CHEN Xiaonan ，FU Hui ，PAN Jiajia
（1. State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security，China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research，Beijing

100038，China；2. China South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Corporation Limited，Beijing 100038，China）

Abstract：The local cold waves along the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （MRSNWD）

are prone to triggering ice conditions，which，in severe cases，may lead to ice-related disasters. This increases the

complexity of wintertime water transfer operations for the MRSNWD. Accurately and precisely evaluating the impact
of local cold waves along the project on ice conditions，and determining the temperature thresholds for the occurrence

and development of ice conditions as well as cold wave grades，can provide technical support for shortening the dura⁃
tion of the ice period，reducing the impact range of the ice period，and tapping the water transfer potential. This study

.
develops a Temperature Cold Wave Index （TCI）based on the 3-parameter Log-logistic distribution （LLD3） Taking

Baoding Station as a case，a TCI-based cold wave grade classification method for MRSNWD is defined，with index

parameters including cumulative negative temperature，temperature drop range，and temperature drop continuity.
Comparison with prototype observations of ice conditions in the MRSNWD indicates that the cold wave grade classifi⁃
cation using the TCI method effectively reflects the severity of ice conditions in terms of both intensity and frequency.
The initial ice formation time occurs either during the first cold wave or when the cumulative negative temperature
reaches the cold wave threshold for the first time. The cumulative negative temperature threshold and the cold wave
grade classification method proposed by the new TCI method can provide valuable support for winter temperature and
ice condition prediction in northern rivers as well as long-distance open-channel water diversion projects.

Keywords：3-parameter Log-logistic distribution；Temperature Cold Wave Index；cold wave grades；Middle Route

of South-to-North Water Diversion；wintertime water transfer；temperature threshold

（责任编辑：鲁 婧）
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