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The law of growth：prediction of peak water consumption in China

ZHAO Yong，LI Haihong，LIU Hanqing，WANG Lizhen，HE Guohua，WANG Hao
（State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin，
China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research，Beijing 100038，China）

Abstract：The development trend and growth limit of total water consumption are related to the macro deci⁃
sion-making of national water resources management and the layout of major water conservancy facilities.
This paper proposed the ternary water-use driving mechanism of socioeconomic scale， production level and
water supply， constructed an Adaptive Increase Curve Yielding to the Resource-Constrained （AIR curve）
and growth law， and summarized and put forward the socioeconomic characteristic parameters and quantita⁃
tive discrimination basis related to the emergence of peak water consumption. The study took prefecture-lev⁃
el cities as the basic unit，classified and judged the future growth trend of total water consumption of 358
prefecture-level administrative regions in China，and further predicted national and regional peak water con⁃
sumption and their occurrence time. The results show that under the framework of the most stringent water
resources management system and existing engineering planning system，China’ water consumption peak is
s
3
likely occur in 2037， with a peak water consumption of about 648 billion m . Based on the historical law
and future forecast of China's water consumption， this paper put forward the illusion of the current inflec⁃
tion point of total water consumption and the phenomenon of water supply ceiling， analyzed the growth
trend of water demand of different sectors，and discussed the uncertainty of the peak water consumption in
China.
Keywords： water-use driving mechanism; growth law; growth threshold; China’s water consumption peak;
uncertainty
（责任编辑：韩 昆）

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