Page 72 - 水利学报2021年第52卷第3期

Probabilistic seismic risk analysis of overall stability of high arch dam-foundation systems

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LIANG Hui ，ZHAO Wenguang ，GUO Shengshan ，TU Jin ，LI Deyu ，LIAO Jianxin
（1. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research，Beijing 100048，China；
2.PowChina Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited，Chengdu 610072，China；
3. China Three Gorges Construction Management Co. LTD，Beijing 100038，China）

Abstract： In order to analyze the seismic risk of high arch dam， the power exponential function is used
to describe the seismic hazard curve， and the analytical function of the probabilistic seismic risk analysis
is derived by combining the probabilistic seismic demand model and the seismic vulnerability function.
Based on this，the probabilistic seismic risk analysis of the overall stability of a high arch dam foundation
system is carried out by taking a practical project as an example. In the probabilistic and statistical frame⁃
work，the probabilistic seismic risk analysis model is constructed for the purpose of the overall seismic sta⁃
bility safety assessment of high arch dam-foundation systems，considering the uncertainty of mechanical pa⁃
rameters of the sliding surface of the control sliding block in the dam abutment， thus， the residual slip⁃
page-based annual exceeding probability curves of the high arch dam-foundation system are obtained. More⁃
over，the probability of the arch dam-foundation system reaching different performance levels during the de⁃
sign reference period is given，which provides the basis for the seismic safety evaluation under the extreme
earthquake，and provides the scientific basis for the seismic safety decision-making of concrete dams based
on the existing criteria changing to the safety decision-making based on the risk probability.
Keywords： high arch dam-foundation system； seismic stability； probabilistic seismic demand model； seis⁃
mic hazard；seismic vulnerability；seismic risk analysis

（责任编辑：王冰伟）

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