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Construction of flow duration curves based on multi-component streamflow and
simulation-driven hydrological modeling

1

LAN Tian 1，2，3 ，ZHANG Jiajia ，ZHANG Hongbo 1，2，3 ，CHEN Yongqin 4，5

（1. School of Water and Environment，Chang′an University，Xi’an 710054，China；2. Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Eco⁃

logical Effects in Arid Regions，Ministry of Education，Chang’an University，Xi’an 710054，China；3. Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology

and Water Security in Arid Regions，Ministry of Water Resources，Chang’an University，Xi’an 710054，China. 4. School of Humanities

and Social Science，The Chinese University of Hong Kong，Shenzhen 518172，China；5. Department of Geography and Resource Manage⁃

ment，The Chinese University of Hong Kong，Hong Kong Special Administrative Region，Hong Kong 999077，China）

Abstract：The Flow Duration Curve （FDC）is an essential tool for reflecting changes in watershed hydrological pro‐
cesses and water resource conditions，providing important references for the design of water resource engineering and

the optimization of reservoir operation strategies. Due to the inherent complexity of hydrological processes，accurate

prediction of the FDC remains a significant challenge. To address the issue，a process-based mixture Copula model
was developed to improve the predictive accuracy of the FDC by analyzing and capturing the influence of multiple
streamflow components on the shape of the FDCs. The HYMOD model was used to simulate the daily streamflow in
the Hanjiang River Basin，providing input for the mixture Copula model. The delay flow separation was employed to

divide the predicted streamflow into components representing different water sources，the dependence among these

components was captured using an optimal Vine Copula structure. The results indicate that during the calibration

period，the application of the mixture Copula model achieved an average reduction of 26.5% in RMSE，effectively
correcting the biases that arrose from constructing FDCs constructed directly based on predicted streamflow. Notably，
for low streamflow，the RMSE_low was reduced by approximately 90%. Furthermore，the model demonstrates robust‐

ness and stability across various time periods，providing a more accurate and effective new approach for the simula‐

tion and prediction of FDCs.

Keywords：flow duration curve；Vine Copula structure；delay flow separation；physical process control；Hanjiang

River Basin
（责任编辑：耿庆斋）
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