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2393-2408 .
［ 33］ 王 博 威 ，李 建 柱 ，冯 平 . 土 地 利 用 变 化 对 潘 家 口 水 库 控 制 流 域 径 流 影 响［J］. 水 利 学 报 ，2018，49（3）：
379-386 .

Characteristics and risk analysis of drought propagation from meteorological drought to
hydrological drought in Luanhe River Basin

1，2 1 1 1
ZHANG Xuan ，XU Yang ，HAO Fanghua ，HAO Zengchao
（1. Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology，College of Water Sciences，
Beijing Normal University，Beijing 100875，China；
2. Green Development Institute，Beijing Normal University，Beijing 100875，China）

Abstract： The meteorological drought will lead to the shortage of water resources in the hydrological cycle
system. Exploring the drought propagation characteristics of meteorological drought to hydrological drought
will provide technical support for reducing drought losses and ensuring the water supply safety of river ba⁃
sin. Based on the meteorological and hydrological data from 1960 to 2017 in the mountain of Luanhe River
Basin （LRB），the propagation relation between the meteorological and hydrological drought events was ana⁃
lyzed. The Copula model was used to assess the risk of propagation from meteorological drought to hydrologi⁃
cal drought. The results show that：（1） Compared with meteorological drought， hydrological drought has a
lower frequency，longer duration，and lower peak value；（2） The propagation relation between meteorologi⁃
cal drought and hydrological drought were closest related at the LRB；（3） There was a significant lag in
the propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought；（4） The results of copula model showed
that the propagation risk of drought duration in the downstream region was higher than that in the down⁃
stream of LRB. This study provides useful insights for evaluating the propagation and evolution of different
types of drought events and constructing drought risk assessment models.
Keywords：meteorological drought；hydrological drought；drought propagation；Copula function；critical con⁃
dition

（责任编辑：耿庆斋）

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