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Real-time risk rate quantitative model and early warning method for bank slope operation

3
CHEN Bo 1，2 ，LIU Tinghe 1，2 ，HUANG Zishen ，WU Zhongru 1，2
（1. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering，Hohai University，Nanjing 210098，China；
2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Enigineering，Hohai University，Nanjing 210098，China；
3. Power China Zhongnan Engineering Corporation Limited，Changsha 410014，China）

Abstract：The high slope of reservoir bank is a complex system，whose state changes in real time. It is dif⁃
ficult to reflect the dynamic evolution characteristics of engineering，o draw up the early warning index by
t
referring to the current design specifications or applying the traditional reliability method. Therefore，he re⁃
t
al-time risk rate quantitative model and early warning method of the bank slope operation are proposed，by
integrating the monitoring data into the engineering risk rate analysis method. Firstly，a temporal and spatial
regression model of slope safety is established based on the measured data，and a quantitative model of re⁃
al-time risk rate of slope operation is established，by using the error normal distribution characteristics of
t
the regression model. Secondly，he objective evaluation standard of slope risk rate reflecting the engineering
grade and safety level is established by combining probability reliability theory and uniform standard of
structural reliability design. Finally， the quality control chart is introduced to quantitatively design the
two-level real-time risk rate index of the bank slope operation warning condition. The results can transform
the slope safety monitoring data into the risk rate of engineering operation in real time and dynamically
monitor the slope warning situation，which provides a new idea for the real-time monitoring of slope opera⁃
tion status.
e
s
r
r
Keywords：bank slope of reservoir；afety monitoring；eal-time；isk rate；arly warning
（责任编辑：李 娜）

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