Page 19 - 2025年第56卷第10期

Driving factors and regulation strategies for resilience of water resources
system in the Yellow River Basin

1，2，3 4 2，3 1 1

ZHENG Xiaokang ，WANG Yu ，ZHANG Di ，MA Chao ，WANG Hao

（1. School of Civil Engineering，Tianjin University，Tianjin 300350，China；

2. Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.，Ltd.，Zhengzhou 450003，China；

3. Key Laboratory of Water Management and Water Security for Yellow River Basin of Ministry of Water Resources，Zhengzhou 450003，

China；4. Yellow River Conservancy Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources，Zhengzhou 450003，China）

Abstract：The water resources system of a river basin is a complex system of meteorology and hydrology-water
network-economy and society-ecological environment. Under extreme drought condition， ensuring the water

resources security in the river basin should not only focus on the amount of water shortage，but also need to consider

the process of water shortage damage and the response process. Ensure that the water resources system in the river

basin can be restored to normal after experiencing severe water shortage，that is，have the resilience to cope with

extreme dry water. The resilience means that when facing external shocks such as climate change and drought，the

system can maintain its function，structure，and service capacity through a series of regulatory measures and dynamic

responses. This paper utilizes the Yellow River Basin as a case study，examining the dual natural-social response pro⁃

cesses of water resources within the basin′s system under conditions of extreme low-flow perturbation. The study pro⁃

poses a 3Rs （Robustness-Resistance-Recovery）resilience framework，encompassing the system′s inherent stability

（robustness），its capacity to withstand short-term pressures （resistance），and its ability to gradually recover to a

.
normal state post-disturbance （recovery） A comprehensive 16-index evaluation system was constructed，and the
water resources system resilience was quantified using an improved TOPSIS model with combined weighting for the
period from 1990 to 2022. The Mann-Kendall test revealed that both the connotation and coupling effects of the
system exhibit a significant upward trend. Based on large systems theory，key drivers of water resources system resil⁃

ience evolution in the Yellow River Basin were identified through a combination of geo-detectors and the K-Means
clustering algorithm. The identification results were validated through global sensitivity analysis，leading to recom⁃

mendations for enhancing the basin′s water resources system resilience. The study analyzes and proposes regulation
strategies for the Yellow River Basin to cope with extreme water depletion，considering scenarios of regulatory mea⁃

sures from both the supply and demand sides. The research provides theoretical and technical support for constructing
a resilient Yellow River Basin and improving water resources security in the basin.

Keywords：water resource system；resilience strategy；driving factor；Yellow River Basin

（责任编辑：耿庆斋）

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